NHL Lockout: Future Impact on Arizona

The last NHL lockout will only hold until the CBA eight year opt-out clause

Fast-forwarding to September 15, 2022:

The current CBA is about to run out, and let’s assume the league can’t come to an agreement and renew it or restructure it in time — here we are, looking at yet another lockout. Dare I suggest that procrastination does nothing except delay results?

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It would be pleasant to hope that the league has learned from the last NHL lockout, but all one needs to do is research the league’s history to see that the NHL has had consistent trouble agreeing upon the CBA after each previous one expires. The ’12-’13 lockout was the third lockout in the last 19 years since Mr. Bettman became Commissioner in 1993, making it the third lockout since the league starting using formal CBA’s as a method of outlining the relationship between owners and players.

Let’s see how this could affect our team, the Arizona Coyotes.

Looking into the NHL crystal ball for the 2021-2022 season, let’s assume Max Domi is the team’s leading scorer — based on current contract trends, we can assume he’ll be demanding a hefty $11M a year.

To be fair, let’s use him as an example — and pretend he hits a best-case scenario kind of career. Should his numbers for the 2020-2021 season be sizable (anything over 25 goals and 60 points on the season). Contracts trending the way that they are, teams are rewarding franchise players accordingly.

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We can also assume that Henrik Samuelsson will be a key player for the team, and therefore will also be demanding a comparable (or, at the very least, significantly large) contract. GM Dave Tippett we can assume will have assembled a good group of players — to examine what the team could be, we can pretend that the team acquired Jordan Eberle for Keith Yandle. Ryan O’Reilly would make a nice addition, too — but either player would be a good one to use in our hypothetical scenario.

“If Tippett (or whomever is running the show at this point) has acquired the much needed firepower to get the team’s notoriously weak offense going, we can assume the team has a larger fanbase.”

Based on the way the team’s current players (and prospects) are trending — adding in that the team will likely draft high in the strong 2015 draft class — we can assume that Shane Doan will have led his team well until his retirement. That should inevitably happen before the impending, hypothetical lockout — so let’s keep him in the picture as the successor for Tippett.

To simply look at the effects of the lockout from a best-case scenario, let’s assume Doan (who retained a chunk of the fanbase by sticking around after he retired from his on-ice career) takes the team to the Western Conference Finals for only the third time since relocating from Winnipeg. Doan, who was the captain of the Desert Dogs, knew how to get every ounce of results from his team — and it will show in our hypothetical scenario when his gritty Coyotes defeat the Edmonton Oilers (sans-MacTavish, naturally) in a seven game series. Moving on to play in the Stanley Cup Finals against the N.Y. Islanders… winning the cup… that would be the real dream, but let’s stick with a marginally successful team over the next five seasons. Essentially, we’ll look at the effect a lockout would have on a team with an acceptably-sized fanbase — which means adhering to the assumption that the fanbase will, at the very least, remain the size it is now, with no reductions.

We can assume that when Andrew Barroway purchased 51% of the team, he became more generous with contracts. It was his dream to own a NHL franchise, and he realized that to get results you must pay the big players big bucks.

What he didn’t plan for, though, was another lockout.

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The eight year opt-out clause was mutually agreed upon at the end of the ’12-’13 lockout, but let’s assume they make it past the opt-out clause. If the salary cap escalates to the projected figures ($79M), the NHLPA will be unlikely to want to opt out of the agreement — but if owners are unable to keep up with these increased salary demands due to economy struggles or teams start to falter (making the reintroduction of the escrow account necessary), things could go south when it comes to restructuring the next CBA. Having a lockout after winning the Stanley Cup would cripple any generated fan support captured during any deep playoff run — Barroway knows this, and should act accordingly.

"I believe that another lockout would cripple the NHL so deeply that competing hockey leagues, similar to what happened in the 70’s when the WHA gave the NHL a run for their money, will start to crop up. NHL ticket prices could become so high that the average family would be unable to attend a game. Even if the NHL changes some of the rules — like adding the seven minute overtime with three minutes of 4 on 4, and four minutes of 3 on 3, and the size of the net changing, the game would suffer if labor disagreements become commonplace."

The league just can’t afford another lockout — and they certainly can’t afford another season cancellation, which occurred in the ’04-’05 season. Although fans did come back to the game, I wouldn’t be too sure of that happening again.

Why? Simple — you’d upset the diehards and the casual fans.

Die-hard hockey fans are loyal, and when you take the game they love away from them due to labor disagreements, it just doesn’t sit well with them. There is competition for the entertainment dollar, and NHL fans will find another avenue to spend their hard earned money. If contract negotiations become a game of chicken — waiting to see which side will give in first — that only hurts the game, and especially the fans. The fans ultimately generate the profits, which pay the bills — no matter how rich the owners may be.

In summation, lockouts are nothing but a power struggle for money. It’s always about the bottom line. Let’s hope lockouts are a thing of the past. The key here is to start the negotiation process well in advance of the deadline, but then that destroys your position and doesn’t force the other side to squirm wondering what will happen.

Hopefully, the only part of this that will come true is the Coyotes winning a Stanley Cup — but in the event that another lockout happens, the league shouldn’t be surprised if it doesn’t recover as quickly. Taking the loyal NHL fans for granted may be the mistake they don’t want to make.

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