Arizona Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: Anaheim Ducks
By Alex Temes
The Second Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs are upon us and the presumptive favor to win the Western Conference is no longer dancing. But would the Anaheim Ducks still be playing Playoff Hockey if they had matched up against the Arizona Coyotes?
The Arizona Coyotes did not make it into the Stanley Cup Playoff dance, yet the show continues on.
The stage is set for the second round. The Florida Panthers surprisingly fell in the First Round to the resurgent New York Islanders while the Washington Capitals knocked off the Philadelphia Flyers in a series full of cheap shots. Out West, the mighty Chicago Blackhawks fell to the St. Louis Blues in one of the most exciting Game 7’s of all time. Meanwhile, the L.A. Kings fell to the San Jose Sharks in 5 games and the Anaheim Ducks choked in a Game 7 meltdown.
But when you look down the Anaheim roster, you’d think the Ducks should have won that game and series. Heck, they were most analyst’s pick to get out of the West.
Now I like to consider myself a top-tier analyst akin to the likes of Pierre LeBrun and Bob McKenzie (I hope you all know I’m totally kidding) and I had the Preds beating Anaheim in 7. I see Anaheim’s defense as middling, their offense heavily based on only a few players and, in my amateur scouting eyes, over-achievers.
Does this over-achievement mean that the Arizona Coyotes could have beat them in a playoff series this season had the Coyotes made the postseason? Let’s break down the season series, the coaching and the line matchups to see just how viable a Preds-like upset could have been for the Yotes.
Season Series Review, Standout Statistics and Coaching
Over a five game regular season series, the Coyotes achieved a winning record against Anaheim. Posting a 3-2-0 record with two of those three wins in Anaheim at the Honda Center, or the “Ponda” (get it, quack, quack?). The individual game scores and stats broke down like this:
March 3: Back at home in the desert, Arizona couldn’t find a way to get out of its losing ways as
the Coyotes fell to Anaheim 5-1
and fell further away from the playoff pack. The lone Arizona goal scorer was Anthony Duclair (PPG) while Anaheim goals came from
(PPG),
(PPG),
,
and Corey Perry (PPG).
got thumped in his first career start while
made himself useful in a tilt, which you can review for your own pleasure here:
Another interesting point to note in this game is
‘s “garbage hit” on
, according to Fox Sports Arizona TV analyst Tyson Nash. Max Domi and Anthony Duclair almost got in a fight with each other over who got to take down Garbutt for his dangerous hit and in the end, Domi received a 1-game suspension for instigating a fight in the final five minutes of the game. Max showed flashes of his father all season long, and here is just another example of why you don’t wanna mess with the Coyotes while Max Domi is on the ice:
The first three games of the series had minimal penalties, but coincidentally, that’s when Anaheim was one of the worst teams in the West and the Arizona Coyotes were leading the Pacific Division. The last two games, when Anaheim was noted as being nearly unstoppable en-route to their Pacific Division title, matched up to Arizona’s fall from grace. The point of noting these trends is that momentum was key when these two teams played and it would certainly matter in a playoff series.
A comparable example of this point is Los Angeles’s hot run at the end of the 2012 season which led them to a Stanley Cup.
Another important note to put forward is that Arizona played 4 different goaltenders against Anaheim over only 5 games. There was no consistency in Arizona goaltending; it was either there or it wasn’t. It also didn’t help that Mike Smith got hurt less than halfway through the season and now former GM Don Maloney’s goaltending rehab program recipient Anders Lindback never really found his way back with Arizona.
Perhaps the biggest X-Factor in this matchup is Anthony Duclair and, to a lesser extent, Max Domi’s dominance over Anaheim all season.
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In terms of coaching, Dave Tippett loves his north-south, finesse game while the (former) Ducks coach Bruce Boudreau finds ways to make his offense put up numbers when the defense behind his forwards move their skates. For years, Boudreau has been on the hot seat for his lack of success in the playoffs; it was the reason Washington let him go years ago. Another interesting point to note is the rift he can cause with players. The great Teemu Selanne has been quoted as saying he would still play for Anaheim if Bruce Boudreau were not the team’s skipper.
Now for the line matchups:
First Lines:
Arizona Coyotes: Tanguay-Vermette-Duclair
Anaheim Ducks: Perron-Getzlaf-Garbutt
Both Alex Tanguay and David Perron were midseason pickups by their respective teams and produced similar results; both had 20 points or less over their short tenures. They created chemistry and had flexibility to fill any need.
Ryan Getzlaf scored a lot more goals than Antoine Vermette, both are PK and PP men and they both play large roles in their organizations. But goals win games.
Anthony Duclair owned Anaheim all season. Ryan Garbutt put up 8 points for Anaheim, and only 14 all season (the rest were for Chicago). Garbutt only had 5 Anaheim goals. Duclair had 20 in his first full NHL season.
Winner: Coyotes, because the matchup just seems to fit kinda funky and Getzlaf seems to be on the downhill scoring trend of forward careers.
Second Lines:
Arizona Coyotes: Rieder-Hanzal-Sekac
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Anaheim Ducks: Thompson-Rakell-Perry
Contrary to the 1st line matchup, I really don’t like how the Coyotes 2nd line matches up against the Anaheim 2nd line.
Tobias Rieder had more points and speed than Nate Thompson, although Thompson’s physicality should not be overlooked. Both Martin Hanzal and Rickard Rakell both scored just over 40 points this regular season, but the deciding factor comes down to the right wing position.
The right wingers on this line are former Anaheim Duck Jiri Sekac and current Anaheim All-Star Corey Perry. Jiri Sekac posted 2 assists with Arizona this year, 1 with Chicago and 1 goal/ 2 assists with Anaheim to start the year. Corey Perry had 34 goals and 28 assists this year for 62 total points.
Winner: Ducks.
Third Lines:
Arizona Coyotes: Domi-Richardson-Doan
Anaheim Ducks: Cogliano-Kesler-Silfverberg
Max Domi produced 20 more points this season (52 points) than Ducks counterpart Andrew Cogliano this last season. Domi also played one fewer regular season game than Cogliano thanks to Domi’s one game suspension for instigating a fight late in a game.
Nearly the opposite of Domi/Cogliano, Brad Richardson scored more than 20 points less (11 goals and 21 assists for 31 points) than Ryan Kesler, who posted 21 goals, 32 assists for 53 points.
Shane Doan, in a resurgent 19th season, posted an almost career high 28 goals and 47 total points. Jakob Silfverberg cranked out 39 points this season, but Doaner just looked like he found his youth again this season.
Winner: Coyotes.
Fourth Lines:
Arizona Coyotes: Martinook-Gordon-Chipchura
Anaheim Ducks: McGinn-Horcoff-Stewart
Jordan Martinook was, arguably, one of the best non-offense crazy rookie forwards of the year. Putting up a modest 24 points for a non-scorer, he has speed, strength and a strong hockey IQ. His counterpart, Jamie McGinn, is a strong bottom line forward but he just didn’t put up the points and doesn’t have the speed that Martinook managed this season.
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Puck Prose
Boyd Gordon is one of the premier face-off men in the NHL, winning nearly 58% of his face-off this season and he has about a 57% career FO percentage. Shawn Horcoff has only a 50% FO percentage his whole career so far and managed a hair over 51% this season. But Horcoff netted 15 points while Gordon pulled 4 points. Gordon is also invaluable on the penalty kill.
Chris Stewart had 20 points this season over 56 games while Kyle Chipchura notched 12 over 70 games. Its a difference of 14 games and 8 points. Would Chipchura have made up that ground? Probably not.
Does Chipchura check as hard as Stewart?
Arguably, yes.
Who wins?
Winner: Coyotes, in the circle, Ducks in depth scoring (7 more depth points than Arizona) so overall, it’s kind of a draw.
Defensive Pairings:
Arizona Coyotes: Ekman-Larsson-Murphy, Connauton–Michalek, Dahlbeck-Stone
Anaheim Ducks: Vatanen-Lindholm, Bieksa-Fowler, Despres-Theodore
When it comes to defense, I don’t often like Arizona in defensive matchups. I don’t necessarily hate this matchup.
Connor Murphy isn’t quite at development and experience level as Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen are, but Oliver Ekman-Larsson is better than either of those two Ducks. I also think Murphy’s physicality is a better matchup against Vatanen and Lindholm.
Zbynek Michalek is basically the same player as Kevin Bieksa when it comes to offense. The difference between the two is that Bieksa is a hit machine; he’s a physical player. Michalek can be physical, but he’s more valuable on the PK and in defensive accountability.
I won’t argue that Kevin Connauton is better than Cam Fowler. I’d be lying to you if I said that. But I think Fowler is held back by Bieksa whereas Michalek compliments Connauton’s offensive orientation.
So even though this Coyotes pairing doesn’t score as much as their Ducks counterparts, their individual skills lend themselves more towards a winning effort.
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Finally, the third pairings provide another interesting matchup. Michael Stone is better than Shea Theodore and Simon Despres most nights, but I think Despres has some big offensive upsides (he was a big defensive prospect for Pittsburgh for a long time).
Theodore is a highly touted defensive prospect and many Ducks fan pages on Twitter think highly of him. That being said, Santa Klas Dahlbeck isn’t chop liver. Chicago didn’t trade him to Arizona the way they ditched Trevor Daley on Pittsburgh and Rob Scuderi on L.A. He came to Arizona as a decent prospect and he’s grown into a decent lower pairing D-Man.
He didn’t quite bloom like his former Blackhawk contemporary Trevor van Riemsdyk, but he isn’t a total flop.
Winner: Coyotes.
Goaltending:
Arizona Coyotes: Smith, Domingue
Anaheim Ducks: Andersen, Gibson
Mike Smith can be spectacular when he plays a hot hand. He showed his skill in the first meeting between the Ducks and Coyotes early in the season. In fact, he shut them out. But it take 4 games to win a series.
Then again, Fredrik Anderson could only put together three games against Nashville in an epic Anaheim choking session. So the question comes down to consistently.
Mike Smith never got to develop a groove for the whole season but he ended the season on a slew of low notes. Anaheim started very slow, got really hot and then cooled off as the playoffs got started. I think this matchup would’t necessarily define a series, but it would’t be a wash.
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Winner: Ducks, because Andersen found a way to get hot while Smith got himself hurt and never helped the team to find a groove midway through the year.
And now some extracurricular matchups for fun:
-What if the uniforms had any bearing on who would win the series?
I actually think this question could be the most divisive matchup of the series. I, personally, see the Arizona Coyotes’ logo, colors, and uniforms as superior to Anaheim’s although their old Mighty Duck logo with the goalie mask is excellent. Their current combo, especially their black uniforms, just seem like a weird mosh up of their old diagonal waistline jersey with a halfway finished rebranding effort.
The Coyotes, who just went through a partial rebranding themselves, look sharp in their white aways. Their home reds just look better than Anaheim’s home getups and the throwbacks is a toss up because everyone loves the Kachina unit and the Mighty Duck is just so cool looking.
Winner: Coyotes.
-What if the local baseball teams had any bearing on the theoretical series winner?
Both the D-Backs and Angels look to be at about the same place in their division and the rosters are pretty similar. Both have one or two stellar players but Arizona is slightly better in starting pitching, which really hasn’t shown up yet (I’m looking at you guys, Greinke and Miller).
Winner: D-Backs.
Series Winner: Arizona in 7.
Next: Arizona Coyotes 2015-16 Player Grades: Kyle Chipchura
If you followed the Coyotes all season, you’d know the Arizona Coyotes were really outstanding when they’re hot. They ended the season pretty cold, but we saw how Nashville dispatched Anaheim in 7. They had good matchups, played a physical game and ground out goals.
Anthony Duclair and Max Domi owned Anaheim this year, Mike Smith’s two starks against Anaheim were strong showings and Anaheim’s reliance on Ryan Kesler, Corey Perry and Ryan Getzlaf just seems too heavy.
I like Arizona if they show up and feel that they would win it in nearly the same manner the Predators just did in reality.