Arizona Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: Dallas Stars

The Second Round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun as the Dallas Stars shut down the Minnesota Wild in only 5 games during the 1st Round of the playoffs. Would the Arizona Coyotes have suffered the same fate had Arizona hooked up with Dallas in the first round?

The Arizona Coyotes didn’t make the big dance, but the show continues on.

A lot of teams fell in the first round of the playoffs that were favored to advance more than a maximum of 7 games. The Chicago Blackhawks and the Anaheim Ducks fell in the first round, while the Florida Panthers couldn’t make their way past the New York Islands and ruined my NHL.com Bracket Challenge submission.

But one team that didn’t falter in the first round is the Dallas Stars, who dominated the Minnesota Wild and drew the St. Louis Blues for a second round showdown.

Now Howlin’ Hockey has covered every single one of the Western Conference teams, with the Arizona Coyotes theoretically defeating the Anaheim Ducks and the Nashville Predators while losing potential series to San Jose, Minnesota, Los Angeles, Chicago and St. Louis.

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Now it’s Dallas’s turn to face Arizona, in theory, and we’re breaking it down for you here:

Season Series Review, Standout Statistics and Coaching

The Arizona Coyotes actually tamed the Central Division champions in the regular season, posting a 2-1-0 record with two of those games at home. The series broke down like this:

February 18: The Arizona Coyotes edged out Dallas at home 6-3 in a back and forth effort. Dallas tallies came from Stars Captain Jamie Benn on the power play, Tyler Seguin and Ales Hemsky. Arizona goals came from Max Domi (twice), Michael Stone, Martin Hanzal (on the PP) and Tyler Guadet. Antoine Vermette sealed the deal with an empty net goal at 18:13 in the 3rd. Louis Domingue got the win in net, while Antti Niemi did not have a fun night in the opposing goal mouth.
March 24: Arizona floored Dallas 3-1 in Glendale as the Stars essentially spent a third of the game short-handed. Dallas committed 12 minutes worth of penalties and when Arizona committed penalties, they scored short-handed. Marin Hanzal iced the game in the 3rd period with that shorty, while the other Coyotes goals came from Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Tobias Rieder. The lone Dallas goal came from Ales Hemsky. Domingue was again dominant against Dallas, posting a .978 save percentage while Kari Lehtonen had an average night.
At home in Dallas, the Stars downed the Coyotes 4-1. Arizona opened the scoring late in the first with Martin Hanzal’s 13th goal of the season. But after that, it was all Dallas. Stars goals came from Patrick Eaves, Radek Faksa and Jamie Benn. Patrick Sharp sealed the game with a empty-net power play score. Mike Smith played ok in net, but Antti Niemi showed why he cans till play at an NHL level.

Some important notes is that both teams committed some penalties, but not any more than you typically see in NHL games. The more important point is that neither team really capitalized on one another’s penalty mistakes. In a playoff series, when a team scores a special teams goal, it could be the defining point in a game and series. Another important note is the absence of Dallas defensive scoring.

Another key is to note the Stars’ goaltending strategy. They are running Kari Lehtonen and Antti Niemi as a Goalie 1A/1B tandem. They switch the two constantly and as the Coyotes showed in the regular season, Arizona has the ability to solve either of them.

Jumping over to coaching, Dallas head coach Lindy Ruff is one of the top coaches in the NHL.

After a rough time in Buffalo, he made his way into the Sun Belt and has catapulted the Dallas Stars into contention within the most competitive division in professional hockey. Ruff is noted as a coach who plays an active style of hockey. He doesn’t waste time on ice and puts the pressure on the players to decide the best ways to make zone entries and exits.

By putting the control in their hands, he allow this players to play to their strengths and minimize their weaknesses. Few coaches are willing to deviate from their personal coaching styles in order to facilitate player’s individual preferences. So that is a big deal.

Arizona Coyotes head coach Dave Tippett is, in a way, the opposite. He’s all about finesse zone entries, taking time with the defense to create a play and commanding the flow of the game by having his defensive quarterbacks, Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Michael Stone, slowdown or speed up the pace of game.

Now, onto the line matchups:

First Lines:

Arizona Coyotes: Tanguay-Vermette-Duclair

Dallas Stars: Benn-Eakin-Sharp

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Now before I break this down, Tyler Seguin would be in the 1st line for Dallas if he weren’t currently injured. Unfortunately, the line combinations from DailyFaceoff.com are updated with injuries so I can’t really account for who Seguin would displace and the effects that would have down the lineup. So for the sake of ease, I just left Seguin out.

None the less, the outcome would remain the same. Jamie Benn contributed 89 points for the Stars this season, personally accounting for 41 of those as goals. That talent alone make the Stars 1st line much better than anything Arizona could put out at the top of their lineup. Cody Eakin contributed 35 points this season and former Chicago Blackhawk Patrick Sharp was no slouch, posting 20 goals and 35 assists.

On the flip side, Arizona fielded a first line of Alex Tanguay, another former Blackhawk in Antoine Vermette and Anthony Duclair. Each of them had a pretty decent season, but none of them really came close to being competitive with Dallas’s 1st line.

Winner: Stars, and whenever Seguin returned, it would be even more lopsided.

Second Lines:

Arizona Coyotes: Rieder-Hanzal-Sekac

Dallas Stars: Janmark-Spezza-Eaves

Coyotes speedster Tobias Rieder notched 10 more points over the season than Mattias Janmark. They’re pretty much the same player in nearly every statistic and advanced statistical category.

Martin Hanzal is one of the biggest centermen in the league at 6’6, 226. His opposition in Jason Spezza is 6’3, 230. Both of these dudes are pretty big hockey players. But Spezza had 22 more points this season. Much of this can be explained with the way Spezza plays with in Dallas, however Hanzal would’t be too far below Spezza when it comes to usefulness in the series.

Third Lines:

Arizona Coyotes: Domi-Richardson-Doan

Dallas Stars: Roussel-Faksa-Hemsky

Between these two lines combos, Arizona outscores Dallas 130 points to 80. I did the math, those numbers are exactly even.

Max Domi is feisty, but not quite as much of a brawler as Antoine Roussel. But Roussel comes nowhere near Domi’s offensive output and versatility.

Down the middle, Radek Faksa does not have a ton of ice time, but if you’ve been watching the playoffs recently, he’s kinda played a big role in Dallas by making some noise. Want an example? Watch the goal below and pay no attention to the Star’s heinous goal song (Faksa goal at 2:54):

Brad Richardson is a decent center, but I just get the feeling that Faksa would outperform him. Its a gut feeling; I can’t really statistically tell you why.

On the right wing, two long-time NHLers would duke it out in Shane Doan and Ales Hemsky. Doan scored 47 points this season and came 2 goals short of a 30 goal season. Hemsky notched 39 points this season as his career stats show a bounce back year from the past three seasons or so. But Doan consistently outproduces Hemsky in recent history, so the matchup tilts towards the Arizona Coyotes favor.

Winner: Coyotes.

Fourth Lines:

Arizona Coyotes: Martinook-Gordon-Chipchura

Dallas Stars: Moen-Fiddler-Sceviour

This matchup really seems like a wash. Travis Moen, former Coyote Vernon Fiddler and Colton Scevior are person for person the same as Jordon Martinook, Boyd Gordon and Kyle Chipchura. In a lot of ways, they both make up ideal 4th line makeups.

The only differentiation between them is Boyd Gordon’s face-off percentage. Gordon wins nearly 8% more face-off than Fiddler, so because there really isn’t any differences between the lines, face-offs really determine this line matchup winner.

Winner: Coyotes.

Defensive Pairings:

Arizona Coyotes: Ekman-Larsson-Murphy, Connauton–Michalek, Dahlbeck-Stone

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Dallas Stars: Goligoski-Klingberg, Oduya-Johns, Russell-Demers

Dallas has one of the worst defenses of Western Conference playoff teams. The most comparable Dallas D-man to Norris Trophy snub Oliver Ekman-Larsson is probably John Klingberg. But Ekman-Larsson is a step up in skill and talents.

One could argue that the rest of Dallas’s defense (Stephen Johns, Alex Goligoski, Johnny Oduya, Kris Russell and Jason Demers) is at the same level or slightly better than the rest of Arizona’s defense (Connor Murphy, Michael Stone, Zbynek Michalek, Klas Dahlbeck and former Star Kevin Connauton). Both teams have older D-men (Michalek, Oduya, Goligoski and Russell) with some younger talents (Muphy, Stone and Johns). Another point is that Arizona’s defense takes an active role in scoring and Dalls’s defense was absent from the scoring sheet during their 3 games vs. Arizona this season.

So head to head, I just like OEL as an X-Factor and he’s that good in my eyes.

Winner: Coyotes.

Goaltending:

Arizona Coyotes: Smith, Domingue

Dallas Stars: Niemi, Lehtonen

You know, a couple years ago, Antti Niemi was a harrowing goaltender to face. In his days with Chicago and San Jose, I never wanted to watch a game with him in the other crease. But Niemi is not the tendy he used to be. Arizona solved Niemi early in the season, but then again, Niemi caught up to them later on.

Kari Lehtonen is much the same as his goaltending partner; he is a good goalie who is either beginning to or midway through the process of ending his career.

As if I’m repeating myself, you could apply the same situation of Niemi and Lehtonen to Mike Smith, who is as streaky as those two. The only guy in the party under 30 is Louis Domingue, who is a decent young goalie but not better than either Niemi or Lehtonen.

And now some extracurricular matchups for fun:

What if the uniforms had any bearing on who would win the series?

Everyone is familiar with the Blackhawks iconic black, red and white jerseys. Dallas basically ripped it off, switched it out for green and smacked a star with a ‘Big D’ on it.

Huh, get it? I made a Dallas pun. That takes talent.

Arizona’s jersey’s compared to Dallas is decent. The colors pop a little less than the green but sometimes subtlety is good. The other thing is that Arizona’s best jersey is their white away jersey and they are pretty unique because of the striping and coloration patterns. Dallas’s white aways are nothing crazy.

Winner: Coyotes.

What if the local baseball teams had any bering on the theoretical series winner?

I honestly don’t follow the American League any further than the Baltimore Orioles. I live in Chicago and I couldn’t care less about the Sox.

So with that said and the fact that Arizona has a World Series while Texas has nothing but two A.L. pennants, I’ll just call it AZ and move on.

Winner: D-Backs.

Series Winner: Dallas Stars in 6.

Even though the Coyotes are slightly better on defense and the bottom forwards look better on paper, Dallas on ice is crazy good. They were able to tame the Wild and can up the Blues for their Game 1 matchup.

Next: Max Domi Snubbed By Voters, Not A Finalist For Calder Trophy

Goaltending would really be what would cost the Arizona Coyotes this series.

Had Arizona have won last year’s NHL Entry Draft, maybe we could talk about a competitive offense, but little offensive experience and talent combined with average goaltending is not a winning combination.

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