Goal Differential, Why it Matters and What it Means

Everyone wants their team to score. The lamp is lit, a horn goes off, the players hug. His teammates stand on the bench. Gloves are tapped, the home teams goal song is played. Fans stand, clap and sing. It is all over in thirty seconds, but it changes the dynamics of how both teams have to play the rest of the game. All teams play different with a lead vs. chasing the game.

When the oppenent scores, it deflates the crowd. The funeral durge music is piped out while the invading fans celebrate. The goalie bats the puck out of his net, forcing the ref to skate to pick it up. There is no replay  shown on the videoscreen. Players climb over the bench with much less emotion. The coach has some decisions to make. Do you put out the energy line to make some hits and get your team and the crowd back in the game? Do you counter and try to score immediately? Did the opposing coach put out his top scoring line to try and bury you?

Hockey doesn’t guarantee you scoring chances unlike baseball or basketball. Your ability to get the puck out of your zone can lead to a defensive zone turnover and the puck in the back of your net. We’ve all seen games where the opponent dictated the game speed, pace, and ultimately the outcome (think Vancouver, Detroit, Minnesota).

To get a good idea on how your team is playing, the won/loss record and points will show you where you are in the standings. To see how you are playing over time, dig a little deeper. I believe the goal for/goal allowed differential gives a better picture of your play. It removes the statistical outlier for when you get shelled for seven goals, smooths out the game you get that five to one win.

From NHL.com, this is the Western Conference teams ranked by points. GF=Goals For. GA=Goals Allowed. Diff=goal differential. GF-GA=Diff. Take a look from the top to bottom or bottom to top. There is one trend in the top eight, or those who will make the playoffs. They are all positive in DIFF with the exception of Dallas and Nashville. Neither team lights it up on a regular basis, both play tight defensive games and wait for you to make a mistake or go shorthanded. Name the top scorer for both. Answer at the bottom of the article. Look at nine through fifteen. The Coyotes are Even in ninth place, and only Edmonton is positive in DIFF. The rest are negative. This ladies and gentlemen, is not only a trend but a predictor of the future.