Goal Differential, Why it Matters and What it Means
Everyone wants their team to score. The lamp is lit, a horn goes off, the players hug. His teammates stand on the bench. Gloves are tapped, the home teams goal song is played. Fans stand, clap and sing. It is all over in thirty seconds, but it changes the dynamics of how both teams have to play the rest of the game. All teams play different with a lead vs. chasing the game.
When the oppenent scores, it deflates the crowd. The funeral durge music is piped out while the invading fans celebrate. The goalie bats the puck out of his net, forcing the ref to skate to pick it up. There is no replay shown on the videoscreen. Players climb over the bench with much less emotion. The coach has some decisions to make. Do you put out the energy line to make some hits and get your team and the crowd back in the game? Do you counter and try to score immediately? Did the opposing coach put out his top scoring line to try and bury you?
Hockey doesn’t guarantee you scoring chances unlike baseball or basketball. Your ability to get the puck out of your zone can lead to a defensive zone turnover and the puck in the back of your net. We’ve all seen games where the opponent dictated the game speed, pace, and ultimately the outcome (think Vancouver, Detroit, Minnesota).
To get a good idea on how your team is playing, the won/loss record and points will show you where you are in the standings. To see how you are playing over time, dig a little deeper. I believe the goal for/goal allowed differential gives a better picture of your play. It removes the statistical outlier for when you get shelled for seven goals, smooths out the game you get that five to one win.
From NHL.com, this is the Western Conference teams ranked by points. GF=Goals For. GA=Goals Allowed. Diff=goal differential. GF-GA=Diff. Take a look from the top to bottom or bottom to top. There is one trend in the top eight, or those who will make the playoffs. They are all positive in DIFF with the exception of Dallas and Nashville. Neither team lights it up on a regular basis, both play tight defensive games and wait for you to make a mistake or go shorthanded. Name the top scorer for both. Answer at the bottom of the article. Look at nine through fifteen. The Coyotes are Even in ninth place, and only Edmonton is positive in DIFF. The rest are negative. This ladies and gentlemen, is not only a trend but a predictor of the future.
| WESTERN | DIV | GP | W | L | OT | P | ROW | GF | GA | DIFF | HOME | AWAY | S/O | L10 | STREAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | * – CHICAGO | CEN | 35 | 22 | 9 | 4 | 48 | 18 | 118 | 102 | +16 | 12-2-3 | 10-7-1 | 4-3 | 8-1-1 | WON 1 |
| 2 | * – MINNESOTA | NW | 36 | 20 | 11 | 5 | 45 | 16 | 86 | 82 | +4 | 10-4-3 | 10-7-2 | 4-3 | 4-4-2 | LOST 3 |
| 3 | * – SAN JOSE | PAC | 32 | 19 | 10 | 3 | 41 | 15 | 95 | 77 | +18 | 12-6-1 | 7-4-2 | 4-1 | 5-3-2 | WON 4 |
| 4 | ST LOUIS | CEN | 34 | 20 | 10 | 4 | 44 | 20 | 87 | 74 | +13 | 13-3-1 | 7-7-3 | 0-4 | 6-2-2 | WON 1 |
| 5 | VANCOUVER | NW | 35 | 21 | 12 | 2 | 44 | 20 | 115 | 85 | +30 | 10-5-1 | 11-7-1 | 1-2 | 7-2-1 | LOST 1 |
| 6 | DETROIT | CEN | 34 | 21 | 12 | 1 | 43 | 20 | 111 | 78 | +33 | 13-2-1 | 8-10-0 | 1-0 | 5-5-0 | LOST 2 |
| 7 | DALLAS | PAC | 34 | 20 | 13 | 1 | 41 | 18 | 92 | 96 | -4 | 11-5-1 | 9-8-0 | 2-1 | 6-4-0 | WON 1 |
| 8 | NASHVILLE | CEN | 35 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 40 | 17 | 95 | 99 | -4 | 9-5-3 | 9-8-1 | 1-1 | 6-4-0 | LOST 1 |
| 9 | PHOENIX | PAC | 35 | 18 | 14 | 3 | 39 | 16 | 92 | 92 | E | 7-8-2 | 11-6-1 | 2-2 | 5-5-0 | LOST 1 |
| 10 | CALGARY | NW | 36 | 17 | 15 | 4 | 38 | 17 | 90 | 98 | -8 | 10-5-2 | 7-10-2 | 0-2 | 6-2-2 | WON 3 |
| 11 | LOS ANGELES | PAC | 35 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 37 | 13 | 76 | 85 | -9 | 9-9-1 | 7-5-4 | 3-3 | 3-6-1 | OT 1 |
| 12 | COLORADO | NW | 36 | 18 | 17 | 1 | 37 | 12 | 96 | 105 | -9 | 12-9-0 | 6-8-1 | 6-0 | 6-4-0 | WON 4 |
| 13 | EDMONTON | NW | 34 | 15 | 16 | 3 | 33 | 14 | 93 | 91 | +2 | 10-6-2 | 5-10-1 | 1-3 | 3-6-1 | WON 1 |
| 14 | ANAHEIM | PAC | 34 | 9 | 19 | 6 | 24 | 8 | 80 | 113 | -33 | 7-9-1 | 2-10-5 | 1-4 | 2-6-2 | OT 1 |
| 15 | COLUMBUS | CEN | 34 | 9 | 21 | 4 | 22 | 6 | 85 | 117 | -32 | 6-10-2 | 3-11-2 | 3-3 | 3-6-1 | LOST 4 |
The same trend exists for the Eastern Conference. It is presented below for consistency. Also from NHL.com.
| EASTERN | DIV | GP | W | L | OT | P | ROW | GF | GA | DIFF | HOME | AWAY | S/O | L10 | STREAK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | * – BOSTON | NE | 33 | 23 | 9 | 1 | 47 | 20 | 119 | 63 | +56 | 13-6-1 | 10-3-0 | 3-1 | 8-2-0 | WON 6 |
| 2 | * – NY RANGERS | ATL | 33 | 21 | 8 | 4 | 46 | 20 | 99 | 72 | +27 | 10-3-2 | 11-5-2 | 1-3 | 6-3-1 | WON 4 |
| 3 | * – FLORIDA | SE | 36 | 18 | 11 | 7 | 43 | 16 | 94 | 98 | -4 | 8-3-5 | 10-8-2 | 2-4 | 4-3-3 | LOST 1 |
| 4 | PHILADELPHIA | ATL | 34 | 21 | 9 | 4 | 46 | 21 | 118 | 99 | +19 | 8-5-2 | 13-4-2 | 0-2 | 7-2-1 | LOST 1 |
| 5 | PITTSBURGH | ATL | 35 | 20 | 11 | 4 | 44 | 17 | 114 | 91 | +23 | 10-3-2 | 10-8-2 | 3-2 | 6-4-0 | WON 3 |
| 6 | TORONTO | NE | 35 | 18 | 13 | 4 | 40 | 15 | 110 | 113 | -3 | 8-5-4 | 10-8-0 | 3-2 | 4-4-2 | WON 2 |
| 7 | NEW JERSEY | ATL | 34 | 19 | 14 | 1 | 39 | 11 | 95 | 99 | -4 | 8-6-1 | 11-8-0 | 8-1 | 7-3-0 | WON 1 |
| 8 | OTTAWA | NE | 36 | 17 | 14 | 5 | 39 | 14 | 111 | 122 | -11 | 10-7-1 | 7-7-4 | 3-2 | 5-3-2 | OT 1 |
| 9 | WINNIPEG | SE | 35 | 16 | 14 | 5 | 37 | 15 | 96 | 104 | -8 | 12-6-1 | 4-8-4 | 1-2 | 6-3-1 | LOST 1 |
| 10 | WASHINGTON | SE | 33 | 17 | 14 | 2 | 36 | 16 | 98 | 101 | -3 | 11-5-1 | 6-9-1 | 1-2 | 5-4-1 | OT 1 |
| 11 | BUFFALO | NE | 34 | 16 | 15 | 3 | 35 | 14 | 92 | 101 | -9 | 8-9-3 | 8-6-0 | 2-1 | 3-5-2 | LOST 3 |
| 12 | MONTRÉAL | NE | 36 | 13 | 16 | 7 | 33 | 12 | 88 | 101 | -13 | 5-7-6 | 8-9-1 | 1-5 | 3-5-2 | LOST 5 |
| 13 | TAMPA BAY | SE | 34 | 14 | 17 | 3 | 31 | 12 | 90 | 116 | -26 | 8-5-0 | 6-12-3 | 2-2 | 3-6-1 | OT 1 |
| 14 | NY ISLANDERS | ATL | 33 | 11 | 16 | 6 | 28 | 9 | 77 | 108 | -31 | 6-9-3 | 5-7-3 | 2-2 | 4-5-1 | LOST 2 |
| 15 | CAROLINA | SE | 36 | 11 | 19 | 6 | 28 | 11 | 91 | 121 | -30 | 7-10-2 | 4-9-4 | 0-2 | 3-5-2 | WON 1 |
Toronto and Florida are the two teams in the top eight with negative DIFF. This would make sense when you think of the injuries both team have had to top playmakers for Florida, reducing their scoring. Toronto lost G Jamie Reimer due to concussion and offensive production in players like Matthew Lombardi.
What does this mean? It all starts with the Goalie.Take the top thirteen ranked teams in the Eastern Conference in terms of points. Ottawa and Toronto are above 100 goals allowed (122 and 113 respectively). The rest are below 100 or at 101. Tim Thomas and Henrik Lundqvist are winning games for their teams by not allowing goals. 2.04 goals against for Lundqvist, 1.84 for his backup Martin Biron. Tim Thomas is at 1.84 with five shutouts. His backup has two shutouts and 1.66 goals against. You don’t need to score a ton when you don’t allow them.
For the Western Conference, Chicago at number one has allowed 105 goals. Colorado at number 12 has also allowed 105 goals. The rest are under 100. One could conclude that the goaltending is better in the west since their goals allowed is lower. However, if you look at the top five goal scorers, four are in the East. Only Jonathan Toews in Chicago is in the top five. Therefore, it must be few goals for and even fewer goals allowed that separates good from mediocre teams. Hence, the importance of the goal differential. If you want to win, keep the puck out of the back of your net. Your goalie has to steal a couple of games and get some shutouts early. I have not seen Tim Thomas let in a soft goal this year. He challenges, puts the rebound in a safe corner, and is healthy. Build those points by the end of January. You don’t want to have to depend on three other teams to control your destiny in March and April. Take care of business early and your business will take care of you.
Mike Smith has to get healthy and until then, Jason Labarbera needs to play every game like he does vs. Chicago. He stands strong and shuts the door on second and third opportunities. He is a wall. A Barbed wall. Smitty has a goals against of 2.52 and two shutouts. Barbs is at 2.55 and zero shutouts. Neither stat is good enough to get the Coyotes into the playoffs or if they do, get past the first round. Something this franchise needs more than any other team. Tippett’s defensive first play relies on a strong goalie. Without that, you are chasing every game. And if you are chasing, you are going to lose more than you win.
Michael Ryder is the top scorer for Dallas with thirteen, David Legwand is for Nashville. Proof you don’t need a fifty goal machine to win.