Let’s Not Give Up on Mike Smith

This year has not necessarily gone the way that the Arizona Coyotes would have expected regarding their goaltending. It is plain to see that Mike Smith has started out in a bit of a slump while backup goaltender Devan Dubnyk has taken the spotlight. In the past, the Coyotes have been a ride or die team on the performance of Mike Smith and that has not changed. Sean Burke did wonders when Smitty landed in the desert from Tampa in 2011 and shaped him in to being one of the top goaltenders in the 2012 playoffs. While it’s not 2012 anymore and the Coyotes haven’t made the playoffs since, I firmly believe that style of play is still in Mike Smith. Let’s not give up on him.

The Deal

Fans had mixed opinions when Mike Smith inked a six year, $34 million deal with the Coyotes in 2013. Was it too much money? Possibly. Is six years too long for a goaltender who has been in the system for only two? Maybe. Whether you like the deal or not, this basically solidifies that Smith will probably end his career in the desert as he is currently 32 years old. The deal may have been a tad premature after the high of making it to the Western Conference Final the year before, but regardless, the Coyotes have found their franchise goaltender. His salary is too large to buy out and his trade value is not ideal so in lack of a better term, the Coyotes are stuck with him. This is not a bad thing. His past performance on the ice include moments of sheer greatness. Remember the 54 save shutout against Columbus? Or his phenomenal penalty shot save on Marian Gaborik? Case and point, the deal is done and just like the Arizona Coyotes, Mike Smith is here to stay.

Stats

Yes, I am not blind, the stats for Mike Smith are not ideal. In fact, they are downright horrible. If you only watch the ending box scores and not the game itself, the stats can represent a completely different view of certain skaters. Save percentages and goals against averages do not include defensive turnovers or other human errors in the final numbers. These outside variables can greatly skew the representation of goaltender statistics and this is the ultimate case for Mike Smith this season. It is easy to blame the goaltender for a loss as they are the last line of defense; but if the offense isn’t scoring and the defense is missing their assignments, is Smitty really to blame?

Mike Smith’s stats through 14 starts are as follows:

Record: 4-9-1     Save Percentage: .891     Goals Against Average: 3.31

Oct 9, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Coyotes goalie Mike Smith (41) makes a save on Winnipeg Jets center Mathieu Perreault (85) as Zbynek Michalek (4) defends during the first period at Gila River Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports

Again, not where they need to be but with the amount of defensive turnovers from Yandle, Ekman-Larsson, and Michalek earlier this season; I am confident his save percentage would be over .900 and his goals against would hover around 2.50. How can I validate this? By watching the games themselves and not just the final statistics. If the defense coughs up the puck right in front of the crease, the likelihood for any goaltender to make that point blank save is not very high.Two on one opportunities are difficult to stop as well and if your teammates are not clearing out your crease, visibility is minimal. These factors have affected Mike Smith’s game and his overall representation on paper. I am not going to argue with his overall record because if the offense isn’t scoring, the team isn’t winning. If the Coyotes offense would’ve scored at least three goals in some of Smith’s start, the team could potentially have five more wins this year.

Enter Dubnyk

This off-season the Coyotes acquired a different player to fill the role of back-up goaltender. Let me say that again; this off-season the Coyotes acquired a different player to fill the role of back-up goaltender. The key word? Back-up. Devan Dubnyk is different from most back-ups that have seen time in Arizona though. The difference is that Dubnyk has been a starter for most of his career. This is beneficial for Arizona and has been this season. While Devan Dubnyk’s stats are entirely different from Mike Smith’s, he has gone through different situations on the ice.

Devan Dubnyk’s stats through 5 starts are as follows:

Record: 4-0-1     Save Percentage: .925     Goals Against Average: 2.25

Nov 14, 2014; Vancouver, British Columbia, CAN; Vancouver Canucks forward Chris Higgins (20) shoots against Arizona Coyotes goaltender Devan Dubnyk (40) during the second period at Rogers Arena. Mandatory Credit: Anne-Marie Sorvin-USA TODAY Sports

The stats listed above a pretty good for a back-up goaltender. His record is phenomenal but if we break it down like we did with Mike Smith’s we will notice a few things. In four of the five games that Dubnyk has started, the Coyotes offense has produced at least three goals. If we break itdown further, the Coyotes offense scores an average of 4.4o goals a game when Dubnyk starts. The average goals scored when Smith is between the pipes is 2.07. Records do not necessarily dictate goaltender performance. With that being said, I am not trying to bring down Devan Dubnyk at all. He is a wonder for this team and plays his role as a back-up pretty well.

It is Just a Slump

Before everyone goes crazy (which I have seen a few individuals do so) let me remind you that not everyone is perfect. Goalies can not win every single game; it is impossible. Mike Smith is not going to be consistent with posting one goal games or save percentages in the mid to upper nineties every game. I understand that he has had some games that have not gone his way this season. He has let in some soft goals while at the same time made some incredible and acrobatic stops. The skill level and performance are both there, he has just had a slow start. We as fans just need to believe in him. His confidence is shaken but if the fans can trust in his abilities we may be able to see the red hot Mike Smith that we all know and love. The initial reactions to trade him when he gives up a few goals are idiotic and having Dubnyk start multiple games a week is not the right idea either. Mike Smith is just in a slump, everyone goes through one and everyone gets out of one so there’s no need to worry.

So Coyotes fans, please don’t panic. There is plenty more hockey to be played this season and under the goaltending leadership of Mike Smith, I believe that it will all turn around soon. We just have to remember that Mike Smith is our starter; believe in him.