Arizona Coyotes have some future value in Tobias Rieder… we think
The Arizona Coyotes have had a tough season — and in a year where many fans are embracing “the tank” in hopes of winning the McEichel sweepstakes, there haven’t been many of bright spots.
Sabre Noise
One of those bright spots, though, is rookie Tobias Rieder.
He made his NHL debut in style earlier this season, scoring a goal in his first NHL game — and since then, he’s solidified himself as a permanent and essential fixture in the Coyotes lineup.
Rieder, 22, was a fourth round pick of the Edmonton Oilers in 2011 — but was shipped to Arizona in March of 2013 for Kale Kessy, another 2011 fourth round pick. Kessy has yet to step on NHL ice, so we have a clear winner in that trade — and Arizona is reaping the benefits this season.
The German-born forward has put up decent on-ice production this season, to the tune of eight goals and six assists for 14 points. He has shown an ability to play in all situations, ranking fifth on the team in even strength 5v5 ATOI (13:06) and seventh in both power play and shorthanded time on ice per game. He also has two shorthanded goals this season (on the same penalty kill no less).
Dave Tippett has shown trust that Rieder can get the job done in all three zones, but I think he’s missing the one aspect of his game that could turn him into a potential top six winger for the Coyotes.
He just needs to finish
This season, Tobias Rieder ranks third among all rookie forwards in shots on goal — behind only Calder candidate Filip Forsberg and Islanders standout Anders Lee. He even ranks ahead of Johnny Gaudreau and Aaron Ekblad in that category.
What’s the difference between all these players (outside of the pure skill advantage) that Forsberg, Gaudreau and the like possess? Its their shooting percentage.
Rieder ranks 455th in the NHL in shooting percentage, at a horrendous 5.9 percent. For perspective, Forsberg shoots at an 11.2% rate — while Gaudreau is at 12.9% and Lee is at 14%.
The following chart shows how Rieder compares to some of the other rookies who rank high in TOI. Other than the lower relative corsi, the most interesting observation is that he has far fewer offensive zone starts than the rest — and Rieder’s PDO is also well below 100, whereas the top four in my sample are all above 100 (seen as the color).
PDO is the sum total of a players on ice shooting percentage and on ice save percentage.
100 is considered to be the norm; if you are over 100, you’re usually considered to be over-performing, with the opposite being true as well. If you’re under 100, as Rieder is, it’s considered under-performing or unlucky.
How does Rieder get back to 100 and realize his full potential? It’s simple; get his shooting percentage up to league average for forwards. (This season, that’s 10.5 percent.)
“His one goal per 60 minutes would rank him among the top 60 forwards in the league with 660 minutes or more played, it would place him among names like Sidney Crosby, Jakub Voracek, Patrice Bergeron and Bobby Ryan.”
Currently Rieder scores at a rate of 0.6 goals/60 minutes and 0.4 assists/60 minutes, for a grand total of exactly one point/60 minutes. If we adjust his shooting percentage to match that of a league average forward, than we see a jump in those totals to 1.01 goals/60 minutes and 1.44 points/60 minutes.
With this one boost in his stats, where does it rank Tobias Rieder among the rest of the league — and with whom does he compare in terms of goals and points per 60 minutes?
His one goal per 60 minutes would rank him among the top 60 forwards in the league with 660 minutes or more played; it would place him among names like Sidney Crosby, Jakub Voracek, Patrice Bergeron and Bobby Ryan.
No, I’m not saying Rieder is as good as any of those players — I just want to point out who else, according to the numbers, are Rieder-like if he increases his shooting percentage. All of these guys play a far different role from Rieder — so if we look at average TOI, how will Rieder’s new 1.01 G/60 stack up?
Some of the players with similar ice time to Rieder who score at a 1 goal per 60 minute rate are Brendan Gallagher, Jeff Skinner, Troy Brouwer and Brandon Saad. All of whom average between 16.5 and 17.5 minutes per game. Here is a look at how all five players compare.
Oddly enough, he compares pretty closely to Jeff Skinner this season.
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Both of their PDO’s are below 100 — and when you consider an increase in Rieder’s shooting percentage, their point production becomes very similar. Rieder would come in at 1.44 points per 60, while Skinner has 1.5 points per 60 this season.
Both are similar in age, but Skinner has already been an All Star — and was a first round pick — so he’s used quite a bit differently from Rieder. Skinner sees very little time on the penalty kill, while — as previously pointed out — Rieder is turning into a bigger part of the Coyotes’ penalty kill.
Will he ever get to the offensive level of Skinner? Probably not, but it’s at least an interesting comparison to show how much a greater shooting percentage will help Rieder round out his game. Ultimately, he could become — at best — an effective top six, two way forward for the Arizona Coyotes. Something they need in the absence of an Antoine Vermette.
What more could you ask from a fourth round pick from Germany?
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