The Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun without the Arizona Coyotes and Howlin’ Hockey is breaking down how the team would’ve matched up against Western Conference contenders. Today’s theoretical matchup is the Nashville Predators.
Despite the Arizona Coyotes’ absence, the Stanley Cup Playoffs roll on. The Nashville Predators are one of the two wild card seeds, along with the Minnesota Wild. Just as noted in the article about the Minnesota Wild matchup, the Coyotes don’t match up terribly against Nashville except in one particular area. But first, let’s review the season series.
The first game against Nashville was on December 1st in Nashville, marking the beginning of a 5-game road trip across the east coast. This game also marked the beginning of a 5-game losing streak that started the downfall of the team from the top of the Pacific Division standings when Arizona dropped the game 5-2.
The two goals came first from Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the power play and later by Kyle Chipchura 17:09 in the second period. Overall, the game was competitive until the third period, where the wheels fell off the wagon as Nashville scored two goals within three minutes of both the beginning and end of the period.
Nashville’s goals came from Calle Jarnkrok, Mike Ribeiro, James Neal and Filip Forsberg, twice.
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Mike Smith pitched a .900 save percentage in a subpar effort.
The second game, nearly a month later, yielded entirely opposite results as the Coyotes rolled over Nashville 4-0 at home in Glendale. Louis Domingue, by the nature of the score, pitched a shutout and Arizona Coyotes goals came from Antoine Vermette, Tobias Rieder, an empty net goal from Rieder again and a late goal from Anthony Duclair. To put it nicely, Carter Hutton, who started for Nashville, did not look good at all.
That late Duclair tally, by the way, was outstanding. I torment one of my friends who loves the Preds on a daily basis with this goal. Watch the goal and you’ll know why some comparison’s to Peter Forsberg are appropriate:
The last game of the season series was just a week ago on April 7th as the Coyotes dropped their second to last game of the season 3-2 in Nashville. Vermette and Doan scored the first two goals but after that, the offense fell flat and Mike Smith and the defense collapsed late, allowing a goal in the final seconds of the game and just seconds into the overtime period. Nashville’s goals came from Shea Weber, Forsberg, and Roman Josi.
Doing some simple addition, that makes the season series 1-1-1.
Looking down the penalty sheets for the series, there were a handful, but not nearly as many as the Arizona Coyotes racked up in conjunction with Minnesota. Also a departure from the type of games played against the Wild, these games were big wins for either party on two occasions. However the final game shows what happens when these two play a tight match up. In that, I mean that the defense just doesn’t stand up to sustained offensive pressure.
Looking now towards the Head Coaches, we all know Dave Tippett and his record with Arizona. But not too many of us are familiar with Nashville’s coaching situation. The team fired Barry Trotz two seasons ago and subsequently brought in Peter Laviolette, who led Nashville back into the playoffs this year.
Now I’m not too familiar with the coaching situation in Nashville, but that Preds fan I mentioned earlier has repeatedly told me that “the firing of Barry Trotz was the worst move the Nashville organization has ever made”. That being said, Laviolette’s style is aggressive, often having his D-men pinch up into the offense and he likes to play strong north-south game.
Dave Tippett, contrarily, likes to have everything start behind then net, make entry either by designed play or dump and cycle the puck around the net prodding for weaknesses. These two style would make for a very interesting series, should it have happened.
Now it’s time to break down the on-ice match ups, line by line:
First Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Tanguay-Vermette-Duclair
Nashville Predators: Jarnkrok-Johansson-Neal
This match up is pretty lopsided towards the Music City. Ryan Johansen and James Neal are proven NHL talents while Jarnkrok is one of the most underrated young forwards in the league right now. On the Coyotes’ side, Duclair is a rising star and while Alex Tanguay and Antoine Vermette are proven NHL skaters as well, their levels of respective stardom compared to Johanson and Neal are much lower.
Winner: Preds.
Second Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Rieder-Hanzal-Sekac
Nashville Predators: Forsberg-Ribiero-Smith
Looking down the middle, I would take Marty Hanzal over Mike Ribeiro pretty much any day for two reasons; Hanzal is bigger and Ribeiro was locker room poison during his short time in Arizona. It’s safe to say I’m not a fan of his.
As for wingers in this match up, again, the level of talent is far greater on the Nashville side than the Arizona side. As much as I am a Tobias Rieder fan, Filip Forsberg is substantially better when it comes to putting the puck in the net. As for the right side, Craig Smith is a much more proven NHL-level player than Jiri Sekac is. That said, when it come to playoffs, even this is all theoretical, I’d take experience over a journeyman.
Winner: Preds.
Third Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Domi-Richardson-Doan
Nashville Predators: Wilson-Fisher-Arvidsson
It’s tough to really chose which line is the best line the Arizona Coyotes currently have to offer; ‘French Connection’ line of Duclair, Tanguay and Vermette or the third line of Max Domi, Brad Richardson and Captain Shane Doan. In most match ups against other Western Conference teams, the ‘French Connection’ would be the best chance to make breakthroughs. But in a match up against Nashville, the third line would likely be more productive.
From a personnel standpoint, Colin Wilson and Mike Fisher are decent and in any other year, Doan and Brad Richardson match those two. But this year Doaner was phenomenal. So Doan alone makes the Coyotes better when looking at third lines. What makes the Arizona Coyotes a heavy favorite in this line match up is Max Domi.
Domi is fast, handy and in reality, should not be getting third line minutes. Also worth noting is that Viktor Arvidsson is not Max Domi. Viktor Arvidsson only squeezed out 16 points this year. Max Domi put out 52 points. I’m not great at math, but the difference in production between those two is pretty steep.
Winner: Coyotes, by a lot.
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Fourth Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Martinook-Gordon-Chipchura
Nashville Predators: Watson-Gaustad-Salomaki
Again reflecting the sentiment I had with the Wild matchup, Arizona’s fourth line is quietly one of the best depth lines in the league. I won’t stretch to say its Top 5, but its pretty good. I’m pretty big on Jordan Martinook. Boyd Gordon is better in the face-off circle than any other player in this potential matchup and Kyle Chipchura is an experienced grinder.
On the other side, Austin Watson, Paul Gaustad and Miikka Salomaki are all decent, but not great, fourth liners. I like Arizona’s chances in this lineup as well.
Winner: Coyotes.
Defensive Pairings:
Arizona Coyotes: Ekman-Larsson-Murphy, Connauton–Michalek, Dahlbeck–Stone
Nashville Predators: Weber-Josi, Ekholm-Ellis, Bittetto-Jackman
Echoing what I said in the Wild matchup article, there is one particular weakness on the Arizona Coyotes that makes nearly every playoff team better than us in this department. Arizona’s defense is currently pretty weak. Oliver Ekman-Larsson would, arguably, be the best defenseman on the ice again, although Shea Weber and Roman Josi certainly give him a run for his money. Connor Murphy, against Josi and Weber, is like a boys against men situation.
The bigger difference is depth defense.
Mattias Ekholm and Ryan Ellis is a far better pairing than Kevin Connauton and Zbynek Michalek. Michalek may match up one on one pretty well, but a pairing takes two. The third pairings are equally bad, so write off that match up as goal-ridden. But props to Nashville for consolidating their two worst d-men, Barret Jackman and Anthony Bitetto, into one pairing. They consolidate their pain where Arizona has enough quantitative weakness to spread beyond one defensive pairing.
Winner: Preds, by a long, long way.
Goaltending:
Arizona Coyotes: Smith, Domingue
Nashville Predators: Rinne, Hutton
In terms of starting tendys, I would outright say Pekka Rinne is better than Mike Smith. It really isn’t worth arguing.
But Rinne lost a series to Mike Smith in 2012 and if the playoffs show us anything, it’s that we should expect the unexpected. Now we could see a good Mike Smith or a bad Mike Smith and that changes in between periods any more but one thing is for sure, if it came to backup goalies, Arizona wins outright.
Louis Domingue, in my book, is a fringe starting goaltender. I’m using fringe very liberally here. But Carter Hutton is a fringe NHL backup and I’m stretching that title pretty wide. I’ve seen a couple of Hutton’s games this season. When he’s locked in, much like Mike Smith, you can’t get anything past him. However more often than not, Hutton is just the guy thrown in net for a second game of a doubleheader.
He’s a good AHL goalie but not an NHL goalie.
Winner: Preds, when it comes to starters and Coyotes, when it comes to backups.
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And now, ladies and gentlemen, it’s time for some fun extracurricular analysis:
-What if the series were decided by the teams’ jersey designs?
Going purely off of color scheme, I like Nashville’s getup a little bit more than the Coyotes. I like the way their gold and navy is paired and once applied to their jerseys, the execution is strong. The away jerseys for Nashville are ok, but their home ones are almost worth having in your jersey collection at home.
On the Arizona Coyotes’ end, the away jerseys are by far and away the best jerseys in the whole matchup. But the home jerseys leave a lot to be desired. On top of that, Nashville mixes up their helmet combinations occasionally to do their best bumble-bee impressions while Arizona’s only departure from the home and away norm is the rare throwback uniform. At least Nashville attempts to mix it up.
Winner: Preds.
-What if the series were decided by baseball, just for the fun of it?
To clarify, this game would feature the MLB’s Arizona Diamondbacks against the Triple-A affiliate of the Oakland Athletics, the Nashville Sounds. Now again, the D-Backs are not off to a great start so far this season, but do any of us honestly see the D-Backs falling to some minor league squad of a pretty mediocre major league team? No. Shelby Miller would get the W and Nick Ahmed would go 3-5 with 2 RBIs.
Winner: D-Backs.
Series Winner: Arizona Coyotes, in 7 games.
Surprise! Didn’t see that coming did you?
Next: Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: The Minnesota Wild
When it comes to defense, the Coyotes don’t match up well at all. In fact, it’s said that defense wins championships. But defense can’t score every goal for you. Nashville has 4, maybe five outstanding, moderately-to-highly productive forwards. The Coyotes have more than that in Domi, Duclair, Doan, Hanzal, Vermette, Tanguay and Rieder.
Nashville’s talent in depth forwards is substantially less, in my opinion, than the Arizona Coyotes’ and when you apply the styles of the head coaches to the teams they have, Dave Tippett finds a way to get his team over the hump.