Arizona Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: San Jose Sharks
By Alex Temes
The Stanley Cup Playoffs have begun without the Arizona Coyotes and Howlin’ Hockey is breaking down how the team would’ve matched up against Western Conference contenders. Today’s theoretical matchup is a Pacific Division rival, the San Jose Sharks.
The Arizona Coyotes are out of the playoffs, but that won’t stop us from pitting the team in theoretical matchups with Western Conference playoff contenders.
So, in the excitement of the first round kicking off, Howlin’ Hockey is putting out 8 articles about the 8 Western Conference teams who made the big dance. Breakdowns of hypothetical matchups against the Minnesota Wild and the Nashville Predators have already been released, but today we turn to towards a proposed matchup with divisional rival San Jose Sharks.
The season series looked like this:
Two or so weeks later in San Jose on February 13th,
. Tierney bit the Yotes again, scoring at 18:56 in the 1st, with other San Jose goals form
,
and
. The lone Arizona goal came from
, assisted by
.
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Now that short chronology of the season series shows a few trends as well as an important allusion to how a theoretical playoff series between these two team may have played out.
First off, the Coyotes’ youth showed badly, especially in the penalty category. I mentioned PIMs twice in the season series, but the over count over the five games had Arizona with 62 total penalty minutes, which averaged to just over 12 minutes of short-handed play over the 5-game series. San Jose, conversely, only amassed 40 penalty minutes.
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Another trend I noticed is that the Arizona Coyotes were outshot by more than 30 shots in total over the 5 games. San Jose averaged over 29 shots a game while the Coyotes barely managed to get 23 shots in on average. Finally, over those 5 games, San Jose outscored Arizona 12 goals to 5. Those three stats are telling with regards to a playoff series because it shows that, when looking back at the score sheets, the Sharks capitalize on their great quantity of shots where Arizona doesn’t really break through. And when San Jose capitalizes, its on the power play too.
So in a series, if Arizona were to commit the average 12 minutes of penalties a game, chances are San Jose’s almost 30 shots a game would squeak through once, if not twice during a man advantage while Arizona would struggle to edge out a goal a game, whether they’re a man up or not.
Looking at the head coaching, Arizona Coyotes fans are very familiar with Dave Tippett‘s brand. Tipp likes to have strategic entries in the zone, whether on a ‘pick’ play where one player drops to another player and enters the offensive zone or a dump with a speed-skater chasing down the lobbed puck.
Peter DeBoer, on the other hand, has seemed to let his players play to their strengths in his first year with San Jose. He has his team play physical and lets his group of goal scorers in Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski, Logan Couture, Brent Burns and Patrick Marleau carry the team offensively. His laissez-faire approach has worked, and he honestly deserves a look for the Jack Adams Award.
Brent Burns, I might add, would be my pick to be the Norris Trophy winner over Oliver Ekman-Larsson and Erik Karlsson.
I feel guilty saying that.
Now, moving on to direct line matchups:
First Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Tanguay-Vermette-Duclair
San Jose Sharks: Hertl-Thornton-Pavelski
I don’t really think this matchup is much of an argument. The ‘French Connection’ line was pretty good for the last third of the season, but that line doesn’t matchup well at all against a San Jose first line that can both outscore, out skate and outhit you. Tomas Hertl is, in my eyes, the same player as Johnny Gaudreau. Hearing Gaudreau’s name should automatically make you think he’s a great young talent, and he really is. We’ve all seen this goal before too…
Now I say again, Tomas Hertl is really good at hockey. However I counter this point in saying that Hertl has yet to be named an All-Star, let alone All-Star MVP. “Top-Snipar” and former Shark John Scott has so ¯\_(ツ)_/¯.
Hertl’s line mates Joe Thornton and Joe Pavelski aren’t chopped liver either. All three of San Jose’s first-liners are top-tier talents.
Arizona’s top line does not meet that level of talent. Anthony Duclair is a great young forward, but he is only a rookie. Alex Tanguay and Antoine Vermette are decent, but nowhere near San Jose level of good.
Winner: Sharks.
Second Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Rieder-Hanzal-Sekac
San Jose Sharks: Donskoi-Couture-Ward
If Jiri Sekac weren’t on this line and Mikkel Boedker were still a Coyote, or even further back if Radim Vrbata were still a Coyote, this Arizona line would be competitive against San Jose.
But Sekac is there and Vrbata/Boedker are not. So the matchup isn’t very compelling.
I’m big on Tobias Rieder. I think the kid has huge upside, particularly in his speed and agility. So one on one with Joonas Donskoi, I’d take Tobi.
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Martin Hanzal is one of the most underrated big centerman in the NHL. Logan Couture is a pretty good center and scorer in his own right. I feel like these two are a toss up based on who came into the arena that night healthier and more fired up.
But like I said before, Sekac isn’t Boedker or Vrbata and Joel Ward is a proven 2nd/3rd line talent. Joel Ward is much better than Jiri Sekac, at least when it comes to NHL track records.
Winner: Coyotes at LW, Toss Up at Center and Sharks at RW by a lot.
Third Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Domi-Richardson-Doan
San Jose Sharks: Karlsson-Marleau-Nieto
If I broke down the winners by position again with this line matchup, the Coyotes would win on the wings and the Sharks would win down the middle.
But in reality, what makes lines work is chemistry. Some may say that Patrick Marleau’s talent carries this Sharks line, but I think 39-year old and nearly 30 goal scorer Shane Doan, Brad Richardson and rookie Max Domi make for a better line, both in production in chemistry.
Don’t get me wrong; Matt Nieto is good at hockey and Melker Karlsson‘s stats suggest he’s a decent depth forward. But the dynamic of this Arizona Coyotes line just feels like a winner, and I think they’d succeed against this Sharks line combination.
Winner: Coyotes.
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- Report: Logan Cooley could be closer to signing Arizona Coyotes ELC
- Arizona Coyotes sign Matias Maccelli to three-year deal
- Ivan Prosvetov signs one-year deal with Arizona Coyotes
- Arizona Coyotes cut Galchenyuk after reported police incident
Fourth Line:
Arizona Coyotes: Martinook-Gordon-Chipchura
San Jose Sharks: Spaling-Tierney-Wingels
Now I’ve said that in the NHL, there are few 4th lines that are better than Jordan Martinook, Boyd Gordon and Kyle Chipchura. One of the teams that does have a better 4th line is San Jose. Every one of these guys should be a 2nd/3rd liner in my opinion.
In Nick Spaling‘s days in Nashville and Pittsburgh, Spaling was a solid 3rd liner with solid production. Tierney, as noted during the season series, scores on the Arizona Coyotes for fun and Tommy Wingels’s production over the last three years would make him one of the top 5 scorers if he were in Arizona.
Martinook is speedy, Gordon wins face-off and Chipchura is a good grinder, but I think San Jose’s 4th line has all of those qualities plus scoring talent.
Winner: Sharks.
Defensive Pairings:
Arizona Coyotes: Ekman-Larsson-Murphy, Connauton–Michalek, Dahlbeck–Stone
San Jose Sharks: Martin-Burns, Vlasic-Braun, Dillion-Polak
I want to kid myself and say the Coyotes could win this matchup and to an extent, I wouldn’t be too far off base if Michael Stone or Connor Murphy were at the same caliber of player as Paul Martin. But they aren’t, at least yet.
Brent Burns and OEL are both top-tier NHL D-Men deserving of Norris Trophy consideration (see above for my Norris Trophy pick) so it’s a cat’s game as to which one of the two is really better.
Marc-Edouard Vlasic and Justin Braun is a great pairing and those two are pretty even against Kevin Connauton and Zbynek Michalek.
But the talent drop off is steep with the 3rd pairings. Klas Dahlbeck is truly a 7th defenseman and Michael Stone, should he not be injured, is still not a top pairing talent. Conversely, Brendan Dillon and Roman Polak are veteran defensive talents that on most teams don’t deserve 3rd pairing minutes.
So, collectively, if Arizona’s defense were more mature and had grown into their roles more like I’m sure they will next year, they would be much more competitive should this matchup taken place.
Winner: Sharks.
Goaltending:
Arizona Coyotes: Smith, Domingue
San Jose Sharks: Riemer, Jones
A lot of people look at these goalie tandems and see two distinct features; streaky, older goalies and young, talented backups.
Now calling Martin Jones a backup is a stretch, considering he’s been starting recently. I look at San Jose much like I see Dallas’s goaltending in that they run a Goalie 1A/1B tandem; both get a substantial amount of starts.
The streaky goalies are obviously James Reimer and Mike Smith. Smitty, both this year and in the past, is known for being the hottest goalie at some times and incapable of stopping a beach ball at other times. Reimer is really the same guy, except he did it in Toronto for years instead of San Jose.
Martin Jones is streaky in his own respect (see his years in LA for proof), but he’s more a talent than anything else. Louis Domingue is also a good young tendy, but I truly think Martin Jones has a brighter future in the league than Domingue and should Jones play in this series, it would show.
However, my bet is that Smith and Riemer would start the series and if Mike Smith’s playoff history tells us anything, it’s that he shows up in April.
Winner: Coyotes.
And now for my typical article shenanigans/extracurricular matchups:
-What if the matchup were over who had the best uniforms?
Well San Jose’s color scheme is pretty slick. I like the combination a lot and enjoy it more than Arizona’s colors. Both the home and away for the Sharks are stellar where I only really like the Coyotes’ away jersey setup.
But the Sharks’ alternate black jersey is bad. The primarily black logo on a black jersey just isn’t great. Now Arizona doesn’t have an official third jersey (yet) but we can assume the throwback jersey is really the team’s third. Now as a Coyotes fan, what do you think is better; the Sharks black 3rd or Arizona’s throwback?
I just read your mind. I’m that good.
Winner: Coyotes because of the Kachina, Sharks for color scheme.
-What if this prospective series matchup were played out in baseball instead?
Well the Coyotes baseball equivalent is obviously the Diamondbacks but who is San Jose’s? The Giants are in San Fransisco and A’s are in Oakland, but San Jose is south of both. So in the event Arizona played San Fransisco, I don’t think we win but if we played Oakland, our chances go up.
Now if you’re a hockey historian like myself, you’d know that Oakland used to have the WHL franchise the Oakland Seals. So lets just say, for fun, that its Arizona vs Oakland. In that case…
Winner: D-Backs
Series Winner: San Jose Sharks, in 6 games.
I don’t know that many Arizona Coyotes fans would be surprised if we were to have played this series and lost.
Next: Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: How Would They Fare Against The Predators?
San Jose owned the Coyotes in the regular season series. The Yotes don’t matchup well nearly anywhere on ice and the only upside is coaching styles. On top of styles, the stats looks bad for the Coyotes. I mentioned a few of them, but the Corsi and advanced statistics show that this series would not favor Arizona.
Brent Burns and OEL would have quite the series, but the rest of Arizona would struggle to keep up with San Jose’s prolific scoring depth. Smitty would show his playoff prowess to allow Arizona to stretch it to 6 games, but they would get no further.