Arizona Coyotes Theoretical Playoff Matchup: St. Louis Blues

The St. Louis Blues downed the Chicago Blackhawks in a Game 7 thriller. But what if the Blues had played the Arizona Coyotes in the first round instead of the Hawks? Howlin’ Hockey explores this theoretical playoff series today.

The Arizona Coyotes are not in the playoffs, yet they continue on without us.

Much has been made about the St. Louis Blues inability to show up in the playoffs. Over the past half dozen years, the Blues almost always qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs and have been bounced in the first round every time.

It was like a monkey they couldn’t shake.

But on Tuesday night at the Scottrade Center, the Blues finally broke the streak, beat their divisional rival Blackhawks and get the pleasure of meeting the offensive juggernaut that is the Dallas Stars.

With all of this playoff excitement, it may lead an Arizona Coyotes fan to think, “How would the Yotes have fared against St. Louis?”

If that crossed your mind, then guess what? You’re in luck. Your favorite Coyotes fan blog has your back!

Let’s break down the season series, the matchups and declare a presumptive winner. If you don’t agree, get on the ‘Tweeter’ or Facebook, let us know who wins in your mind, in how many games and why!

Season Series Review, Standout Statistics and Coaching

The Coyotes hooked up with the Blues three times over the season, posting an 0-3-0 with two of those games played in St. Louis. The series broke down like this:

On December 8, the Coyotes fell to the Blues 4-1 in St. Louis en-route to to their 5th straight loss at the time. Short-time Coyote Steve Downie opened the scoring at 12:12 in the first but the Yotes fell flat after that, giving up 4 straight tallies to Vladimir Tarasenko, Alex Steen, future Coyote Kevin Shattenkirk and an empty-netter from David Backes.
Late in February, the Blues visited Glendale and beat the Coyotes 6-4. Shane Doan opened the scoring, but St. Louis responded with 4 straight goals from Tarasenko, Steen, Jaden Schwartz and Carl Gunnarsson. Kevin Connauton scored the lone goal of the second. Max Domi scored 50 seconds into the 3rd period, beginning the Coyotes comeback that was stymied by a Patrik Berglund goal 6 minutes later. Domi struck again with under a minute remaining but Backes again sealed the affair with an empty-netter.
The final game of the series was the first of a late season back-to-back schedule. Mike Smith got the start in a blown lead and eventual loss by a score of 5-2. Antoine Vermette and Anthony Duclair both scored in the first but it was all Blues after that. Troy Brouwer struck on the power play during the second period, Kyle Brodziak struck twice, both short handed and even strength, in the third while Tarasenko and Berglund had additional tallies.

The first trend to note is that the season series, for the most part, had minimal penalties assessed. I say for the most part because the third game featured a highly emotional second period including a slew of slashing, interference and roughing calls. Another point to note is that pretty much all of St. Louis’s stars scored or contributed in some way.

David Backes, Vladimir Tarasenko, Jaden Schwartz and Kevin Shattenkirk all showed up over the three games against Arizona. They found the Coyotes’ weaknesses and capitalized. That speaks volumes because it happened every game at different points in the season.

A final aspect to recognize before we get to individual line matchups in the coaches. Dave Tippett‘s game is a strong North-South, dump and chase, finesse game (although there wasn’t a ton of finesse on the roster this year).

While Arizona doesn’t play a physical affair typically as well, St. Louis is ‘Hit City’. Head Coach Ken Hitchcock, who I personally make chicken noises at every time I see him on TV or at Gila River Arena, has been quoted as saying he wanted “70 hits” against the Blackhawks this playoffs.

He plans his games essentially on a ‘hit and run’ technique. He uses the physicality of his team, then when his opponents are down and worn out, he has his talent players outrun everyone. Scary thing is, it’s effective.

Now for the meat of a matchup; the players.

First Lines:

Arizona Coyotes: Tanguay-Vermette-Duclair

St. Louis Blues: Schwartz-Lehtera-Tarasenko

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I kinda had the same response in the Chicago series analysis in that these two lines are not in the same area code of scoring output and talent. Schwarz and Tarasenko are certified, first-line studs while Jori Lehtera is not someone a team should overlook.

On the flip side, Anthony Duclair is a rising talent, but not proven and he hasn’t seen playoff hockey yet so its really up to the imagination. Alex Tanguay is experienced, but I just can’t believe that his late-season success this year could continue agains this line. The same experiences and rationale goes for Antoine Vermette.

Winner: Blues.

Second Line:

Arizona Coyotes: Rieder-Hanzal-Sekac

St. Louis Blues: Steen-Stastny-Brouwer

I’m playing a broken record at this point when I talk about the Coyotes’ second line. Martin Hanzal is not an elite centerman, but he’s solid. His opposite, Paul Stastny put up only a few more points over the season but won 4% less face-offs than Hanzal.

Tobias Rieder had a pretty good season, putting up 37 points while his opposition, Alex Steen had 52 points. That’s a pretty big difference, although Steen has a half decade of NHL experience over Rieder.

Troy Brouwer is an older player, but he showed his worth in Game seven Tuesday against Chicago. I’ll just refer you to some of the other series analysis articles for any commentary on Jiri Sekac.

Winner: Blues.

Third Line:

Arizona Coyotes: Domi-Richardson-Doan

St. Louis Blues: Fabbri-Berglund-Backes

Fourth Line:

Arizona Coyotes: Martinook-Gordon-Chipchura

St. Louis Blues: Ott-Brodziak-Upshall

I think if forward combos were solely about scoring the most goals, then Arizona will win this matchup, despite Brodziak’s two goals in the season series. Jordan Martinook and Kyle Chipchura score more than Steve Ott and Scottie Upshall. On top of that, Boyd Gordon would beat Brodziak a lot more than he would lose.

But the x-factor for this matchup is how the coaches use their players. Ken Hitchcock is all ‘about the hits’ and his line shows it. Those three can bruise you like nobody else and those bruises can change the outcome of series.

Winner: Blues.

Defensive Pairings:

Arizona Coyotes: Ekman-Larsson-Murphy, Connauton–Michalek, Dahlbeck–Stone

St. Louis Blues: Bouwmeester-Pietrangelo, Edmundson-Shattenkirk, Gunnarsson-Parayko

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I think it would be pretty clear that Oliver Ekman-Larsson would be the best defenseman on the ice and Zbynek Michalek is arguably as good as most of the Blues D-men (in fact, he was one at the end of last season), but after that things change.

The overall platoon of Jay Bouwmeester, Alex Pietrangelo, Joel Edmundson, Shattenkirk, Carl Gunnarsson and the highly underrated Colton Parayko outsell the rest of the Coyotes’ ‘D’. The rest of the Coyotes’ D-men (Kevin Connauton, Klas Dahlbeck, Connor Murphy and Michael Stone) are decent D-men but the overall platoon and chemistry of the Blues just seems like too much.

Winner: Blues.

Goaltending:

Arizona Coyotes: Smith, Domingue

St. Louis Blues: Elliott, Allen

This may be the most lopsided matchup in this whole theoretical series. Brian Elliott and Jake Allen are both superb goaltenders. Both have also played much better than Mike Smith in recent years and while Louis Domingue‘s play is raising eyebrows, suggesting a brighter goaltending future in Arizona, current play is what matters most.

Winner: Blues.

And now some extracurricular matchups for fun:

-What if the uniforms had any bearing on who would win the series?

In terms of logo, the Blues have a classic ‘note’ logo but I strangely like the Coyote head more (probably some hometown bias talking).

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However, when it comes to color combinations, the Blues gold and blue setup with white accents are next level. Sure, the maroon/dark red, black and white look decent, but blue and gold always look sharp. On top of that, the Blues’ third jersey is one of the best in the league.

Winner: Blues.

-What if the local baseball teams had any bering on the theoretical series winner?

So this analysis is literally the easiest part of the whole article because the D-Backs and Cards are actually playing a series right now. As of this article’s penning, the series is tied 1-1 and the 3rd game just got under way. My bet, based on starting pitchers, is that the series will split 2-2. Both teams basically have the same record too.

Winner: D-Backs, because they’re more likely to make the playoffs given how divisional play has proceeded so far.

Series Winner: St. Louis in 6 games.

Next: Top 10 Coyotes Goals From The Second Half Of 2015-16

In the end, when you look at the season series combined with the coaching styles, it would be too bizarre for the Coyotes to actually pull this series off. The 3rd line is substantially better than St. Louis’s, but beyond that, it’s all Blues.

But keep your chins up Coyotes fans. Arizona has two things that St. Louis doesn’t; an enormous wave of talented young forwards in the making as well as a successful NFL team.

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