The Great Coyote Goalie Debate: Dubnyk Vs. Smith
Dec 29, 2014; Glendale, AZ, USA; Arizona Coyotes goalie Devan Dubnyk (40) makes a save during the first period against the Philadelphia Flyers at Gila River Arena. Mandatory Credit: Matt Kartozian-USA TODAY Sports
Basically, this chart shows what we already knew — that Devan Dubnyk is having a pretty solid season for the Arizona Coyotes.
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This comes as little surprise, though — what many are concerned about is the sustainability of his play. Is it on par with what he has done in the past?
Surprisingly, the answer is yes. The 2014-2015 season is actually pretty close to Dubnyk’s career stats.
Prior to signing in Arizona, Dubnyk spent a season split between the Edmonton Oilers and the Nashville Predators — and Preds fans are the first ones cautioning the Coyotes not to expect Dubnyk’s success to last. Last season was his worst season on record since 2009-2010, when he entered the league as a rookie.
Over the 2013-2014 season, Dubnyk posted a .891 SV% and a GAA of 3.43 — but interestingly, those numbers were a big regression from most of his time in Edmonton. Over five seasons with the Oilers, “Doobs” posted a SV% of .910 and a GAA of 2.88.
Maybe his 2013-2014 season placed an unfair set of expectations on Dubnyk, and this season gives him a chance to finally right his career. His defense has been stellar in front of him, and he admitted that being shipped off to Nashville while his wife stayed behind in Edmonton with their new baby put extra strain on him; both of these factors could being having a huge impact on his performance, which would account for the rise in production of his career numbers.
Below, you can see that this season isn’t too far removed from some of his better seasons in Edmonton. In fact, this season his AD SV% is only his third best season in that category. If this truly was a “statistically magical” season like a lot of people want to believe, than his adjusted save percentage should show that — but it doesn’t.
Is Dubnyk just being faced with easier saves?
This is another huge argument that many have had regarding Dubnyk’s elevated stats — so I took a look at his Hextally over the course of this season compared to his career. (Hextally, for those who don’t know, measures a goalie’s save percentage for shots taken from various spots on the ice).
For Devan Dubnyk, this season has seen him perform better than league average in holding his opponents to low shooting percentages from the area known as the slot. This is actually something he has done throughout his career, though, so once again — we shouldn’t be surprised he’s doing well this season, and we shouldn’t expect those numbers to drastically regress any time soon.
On a Hextally chart, deeper red represents a worse save percentage when faced with shots in that particular area. Green is league average, and blue is better than the norm.
Keeping that in mind, here is Dubnyk’s Hextally from just this season:
Now, here is the same chart — but instead of just looking at this season, it shows Dubnyk’s Hextally over his entire career (through the 2013-2014 season).
The biggest difference this season for Dubnyk is that he is making the saves he is supposed to make — the shots coming from outside the slot area, and from back near the blueline.
All of this shows that Dubnyk is actually playing to the expectations his prior stats have set, showing that we actually shouldn’t be too surprised by what he is doing. Combine this with a defense that sure as heck has a lot more talent than the Edmonton Oilers, and you should expect Dubnyk’s numbers to increase — which they have — and stay there.